Teams
Patriots were the best team per play
Net EPA per play, offense minus defense allowed.
- #1New England Patriots+0.206
- #2Los Angeles Rams+0.206
- #3Buffalo Bills+0.152
- #32New York Jets−0.274
- #31Tennessee Titans−0.261
- #30Las Vegas Raiders−0.240
Football,
measured.
Every NFL play is worth some number of expected points. Add them up and you can rank teams, grade 4th-down calls, and test whether the scouting combine knows anything the draft board doesn't. Built from public play-by-play, with the method and limits in the open.
Every play has a value in expected points
Three findings · 2025 season
What the numbers say
4th downs
76%
of clear-cut calls matched the model
Of 1,887 4th downs where one option was worth at least half a point more, coaches kicked 448 times when the model said go. Across every graded 4th down, calls that differed from the model gave up about 524 expected points league-wide.
The decision chart →Draft
−0.003
AUC the combine adds over draft slot
On 2,001 picks from 2013–2020, adding 40 times, jumps and agility drills to the pick number didn't predict who became a starter any better. The slot already priced it in: 74% of 1st-rounders started 3+ seasons, 7% of 7th-rounders.
The draft study →