Football, measured

Draft

Does the combine tell you anything the pick doesn't?

Draft slot is the league's consensus on a player. If the combine held information teams were ignoring, adding it to the pick number should predict careers better. The test: train on the 2000–2012 classes, score on 2013–2020, outcome = 3+ seasons as a primary starter.

Slot only · AUC
0.794
held-out, 2,001 picks
Slot + combine · AUC
0.791
position-adjusted drills
Difference
−0.003
95% CI −0.007 to +0.001
Base rate
32%
of picks became 3-yr starters

The answer

No. The pick already priced it in.

The interval straddles zero, so the combine adds nothing measurable once you know where a player was drafted. That doesn't mean athleticism is irrelevant; it means teams already weigh it when they pick. Adding a flag for skipped drills made things worse (AUC 0.777), partly because skipping the 40 went from 14% of picks in the 2013–14 classes to 29% in 2020, so what a skip means drifts over time.

What the slot is worth

3+ seasons as a starter, by round

R174%n=255R257%n=253R341%n=300R426%n=303R521%n=278R611%n=310R77%n=302

By position

Nowhere does it clearly help

GroupTest picksBase rateSlot AUC+ Combine AUCΔ
QB9429%0.9190.923+0.004
RB18618%0.8320.815−0.017
WR25727%0.8430.827−0.016
TE11335%0.7450.730−0.015
OL33143%0.8030.799−0.004
EDGE24828%0.7680.759−0.009
DL16938%0.8000.806+0.006
LB19732%0.7960.794−0.002
DB40634%0.7400.735−0.005

Small groups are noisy; a few hundredths of AUC either way is within chance at these sample sizes.

The 2026 class

Every pick, with what history says

The number is the slot model's estimate, so it depends only on the pick and the position. The drills are context, not a forecast. 145 of 254 picks ran the 40. No grades, no rankings of who will bust.

32 players · drill colour = position-adjusted z-score (lime ≥ +1, red ≤ −1)

Fernando Mendoza

QB · Indiana · LVR

#1

94% chance of 3+ seasons as a starter, from pick and position alone

6′5″ · 236 lb

40skipped
Vertskipped
Broadskipped
3-coneskipped

David Bailey

OLB · Texas Tech · NYJ

#2

95% chance of 3+ seasons as a starter, from pick and position alone

6′4″ · 251 lb

404.50s
Vert35″
Broad10′9″
3-coneskipped
CLOSEST ATHLETIC PROFILES, SAME POSITION GROUP
  • Brian Burns ’19 #166 yrs started
  • Bryan Thomas ’02 #227 yrs started
  • Derek Rivers ’17 #830 yrs started

Jeremiyah Love

RB · Notre Dame · ARI

#3

94% chance of 3+ seasons as a starter, from pick and position alone

6′0″ · 212 lb

404.36s
Vertskipped
Broadskipped
3-coneskipped

Carnell Tate

WR · Ohio St. · TEN

#4

91% chance of 3+ seasons as a starter, from pick and position alone

6′2″ · 192 lb

404.53s
Vertskipped
Broadskipped
3-coneskipped

Arvell Reese

LB · Ohio St. · NYG

#5

98% chance of 3+ seasons as a starter, from pick and position alone

6′4″ · 241 lb

404.46s
Vertskipped
Broadskipped
3-coneskipped

Mansoor Delane

CB · LSU · KAN

#6

96% chance of 3+ seasons as a starter, from pick and position alone

6′0″ · 187 lb

40skipped
Vertskipped
Broadskipped
3-coneskipped

Sonny Styles

LB · Ohio St. · WAS

#7

96% chance of 3+ seasons as a starter, from pick and position alone

6′5″ · 244 lb

404.46s
Vert43.5″
Broad11′2″
3-cone7.09s
CLOSEST ATHLETIC PROFILES, SAME POSITION GROUP
  • Isaiah Simmons ’20 #82 yrs started
  • Ben Banogu ’19 #490 yrs started
  • Jamie Collins ’13 #527 yrs started

Jordyn Tyson

WR · Arizona St. · NOR

#8

82% chance of 3+ seasons as a starter, from pick and position alone

6′2″ · 203 lb

40skipped
Vertskipped
Broadskipped
3-coneskipped

Spencer Fano

OT · Utah · CLE

#9

95% chance of 3+ seasons as a starter, from pick and position alone

6′6″ · 311 lb

404.91s
Vert32″
Broad9′3″
3-cone7.34s
CLOSEST ATHLETIC PROFILES, SAME POSITION GROUP
  • Ezra Cleveland ’20 #585 yrs started
  • Tom Compton ’12 #1932 yrs started
  • Taylor Lewan ’14 #117 yrs started

Francis Mauigoa

OT · Miami (FL) · NYG

#10

95% chance of 3+ seasons as a starter, from pick and position alone

6′6″ · 329 lb

40skipped
Vertskipped
Broadskipped
3-coneskipped

Caleb Downs

S · Ohio St. · DAL

#11

90% chance of 3+ seasons as a starter, from pick and position alone

6′0″ · 206 lb

40skipped
Vertskipped
Broadskipped
3-coneskipped

Kadyn Proctor

OT · Alabama · MIA

#12

93% chance of 3+ seasons as a starter, from pick and position alone

6′7″ · 352 lb

405.21s
Vert32.5″
Broad9′1″
3-coneskipped
CLOSEST ATHLETIC PROFILES, SAME POSITION GROUP
  • Donovan Smith ’15 #349 yrs started
  • Isaiah Wilson ’20 #290 yrs started
  • Andrew Whitworth ’06 #5516 yrs started

Ty Simpson

QB · Alabama · LAR

#13

58% chance of 3+ seasons as a starter, from pick and position alone

6′1″ · 211 lb

40skipped
Vertskipped
Broadskipped
3-coneskipped

Olaivavega Ioane

OG · Penn St. · BAL

#14

92% chance of 3+ seasons as a starter, from pick and position alone

6′4″ · 320 lb

40skipped
Vert31.5″
Broad8′8″
3-coneskipped
CLOSEST ATHLETIC PROFILES, SAME POSITION GROUP
  • John Moffitt ’11 #751 yrs started
  • Chris DeGeare ’10 #1610 yrs started
  • Travelle Wharton ’04 #948 yrs started

Rueben Bain

DE · Miami (FL) · TAM

#15

75% chance of 3+ seasons as a starter, from pick and position alone

6′2″ · 263 lb

40skipped
Vertskipped
Broadskipped
3-coneskipped

Kenyon Sadiq

TE · Oregon · NYJ

#16

86% chance of 3+ seasons as a starter, from pick and position alone

6′3″ · 241 lb

404.39s
Vert43.5″
Broad11′1″
3-coneskipped
CLOSEST ATHLETIC PROFILES, SAME POSITION GROUP
  • Virgil Green ’11 #2045 yrs started
  • Travis Beckum ’09 #1000 yrs started
  • Dustin Keller ’08 #303 yrs started

Blake Miller

OT · Clemson · DET

#17

89% chance of 3+ seasons as a starter, from pick and position alone

6′7″ · 317 lb

405.04s
Vert32″
Broad9′5″
3-coneskipped
CLOSEST ATHLETIC PROFILES, SAME POSITION GROUP
  • Kaleb McGary ’19 #316 yrs started
  • Matt Peart ’20 #990 yrs started
  • Jammal Brown ’05 #136 yrs started

Caleb Banks

DT · Florida · MIN

#18

71% chance of 3+ seasons as a starter, from pick and position alone

6′6″ · 327 lb

405.04s
Vert32″
Broad9′6″
3-coneskipped
CLOSEST ATHLETIC PROFILES, SAME POSITION GROUP
  • Renell Wren ’19 #1250 yrs started
  • Nathan Shepherd ’18 #722 yrs started
  • Marcus Stroud ’01 #139 yrs started

Monroe Freeling

OT · Georgia · CAR

#19

88% chance of 3+ seasons as a starter, from pick and position alone

6′7″ · 315 lb

404.93s
Vert33.5″
Broad9′7″
3-coneskipped
CLOSEST ATHLETIC PROFILES, SAME POSITION GROUP
  • Joe Thomas ’07 #310 yrs started
  • Alex Barron ’05 #195 yrs started
  • Kaleb McGary ’19 #316 yrs started

Makai Lemon

WR · USC · PHI

#20

63% chance of 3+ seasons as a starter, from pick and position alone

5′11″ · 192 lb

40skipped
Vertskipped
Broadskipped
3-coneskipped

Max Iheanachor

OT · Arizona St. · PIT

#21

86% chance of 3+ seasons as a starter, from pick and position alone

6′6″ · 321 lb

404.91s
Vert30.5″
Broad9′7″
3-coneskipped
CLOSEST ATHLETIC PROFILES, SAME POSITION GROUP
  • Ezra Cleveland ’20 #585 yrs started
  • Andre Dillard ’19 #221 yrs started
  • Taylor Lewan ’14 #117 yrs started

Akheem Mesidor

DE · Miami (FL) · LAC

#22

68% chance of 3+ seasons as a starter, from pick and position alone

6′3″ · 259 lb

40skipped
Vertskipped
Broadskipped
3-coneskipped

Malachi Lawrence

DE · Central Florida · DAL

#23

67% chance of 3+ seasons as a starter, from pick and position alone

6′4″ · 253 lb

404.52s
Vert40″
Broad10′10″
3-coneskipped
CLOSEST ATHLETIC PROFILES, SAME POSITION GROUP
  • Connor Barwin ’09 #467 yrs started
  • Kamerion Wimbley ’06 #138 yrs started
  • Jordan Willis ’17 #730 yrs started

KC Concepcion

WR · Texas A&M · CLE

#24

58% chance of 3+ seasons as a starter, from pick and position alone

6′0″ · 196 lb

40skipped
Vertskipped
Broadskipped
3-coneskipped

Dillon Thieneman

S · Oregon · CHI

#25

73% chance of 3+ seasons as a starter, from pick and position alone

6′0″ · 201 lb

404.35s
Vert41″
Broad10′5″
3-coneskipped
CLOSEST ATHLETIC PROFILES, SAME POSITION GROUP
  • Karl Paymah ’05 #760 yrs started
  • Michael Huff ’06 #76 yrs started
  • Chris Culliver ’11 #801 yrs started

Keylan Rutledge

G · Georgia Tech · HOU

#26

82% chance of 3+ seasons as a starter, from pick and position alone

6′4″ · 316 lb

405.05s
Vert32.5″
Broad8′8″
3-cone7.54s
CLOSEST ATHLETIC PROFILES, SAME POSITION GROUP
  • Ryan Kelly ’16 #189 yrs started
  • Anthony Alabi ’05 #1620 yrs started
  • David Baas ’05 #336 yrs started

Chris Johnson

CB · San Diego St. · MIA

#27

71% chance of 3+ seasons as a starter, from pick and position alone

6′0″ · 193 lb

404.40s
Vert38″
Broad10′6″
3-coneskipped
CLOSEST ATHLETIC PROFILES, SAME POSITION GROUP
  • Desmond Trufant ’13 #228 yrs started
  • Brandon Ghee ’10 #960 yrs started
  • Bradley Roby ’14 #314 yrs started

Caleb Lomu

OT · Utah · NWE

#28

81% chance of 3+ seasons as a starter, from pick and position alone

6′6″ · 313 lb

404.99s
Vert32.5″
Broad9′5″
3-coneskipped
CLOSEST ATHLETIC PROFILES, SAME POSITION GROUP
  • Jake Fisher ’15 #530 yrs started
  • Laurence Gibson ’15 #2430 yrs started
  • Jammal Brown ’05 #136 yrs started

Peter Woods

DT · Clemson · KAN

#29

59% chance of 3+ seasons as a starter, from pick and position alone

6′3″ · 298 lb

40skipped
Vertskipped
Broadskipped
3-coneskipped

Omar Cooper

WR · Indiana · NYJ

#30

51% chance of 3+ seasons as a starter, from pick and position alone

6′0″ · 199 lb

404.42s
Vert37″
Broadskipped
3-coneskipped
CLOSEST ATHLETIC PROFILES, SAME POSITION GROUP
  • Aundrae Allison ’07 #1460 yrs started
  • Taylor Price ’10 #900 yrs started
  • Steve Smith ’07 #511 yrs started

Keldric Faulk

DE · Auburn · TEN

#31

60% chance of 3+ seasons as a starter, from pick and position alone

6′6″ · 276 lb

40skipped
Vert35″
Broad9′9″
3-coneskipped
CLOSEST ATHLETIC PROFILES, SAME POSITION GROUP
  • Tyler Brayton ’03 #326 yrs started
  • Joe Kruger ’13 #2120 yrs started
  • Taco Charlton ’17 #280 yrs started

Jadarian Price

RB · Notre Dame · SEA

#32

48% chance of 3+ seasons as a starter, from pick and position alone

5′11″ · 203 lb

404.49s
Vert35″
Broad10′4″
3-coneskipped
CLOSEST ATHLETIC PROFILES, SAME POSITION GROUP
  • Miles Sanders ’19 #534 yrs started
  • Marshawn Lynch ’07 #128 yrs started
  • Bernard Scott ’09 #2090 yrs started