Football, measured

4th downs

Go, kick or punt

For each option the model asks: what are the expected points of the next state? Going for it is the conversion chance (from real 3rd- and 4th-down runs and passes) times the value of a first down, plus the miss chance times handing the ball over on the spot. A field goal is the make probability times the value of three points and a kickoff, plus the miss chance times giving the ball up at the kick spot. A punt is the value of the opponent's typical starting field position, and is never considered inside the opponent's 35. Every input is fitted from 2018–2025 play-by-play. It ignores score, clock and weather, so treat it as a baseline, not a coach.

The decision chart

4th & 1 at own 5: GO (go -1.80, FG –, punt -2.60 EP)GO4th & 1 at own 10: GO (go -1.39, FG –, punt -2.32 EP)GO4th & 1 at own 15: GO (go -1.08, FG –, punt -1.99 EP)GO4th & 1 at own 20: GO (go -0.83, FG –, punt -1.72 EP)GO4th & 1 at own 25: GO (go -0.49, FG –, punt -1.41 EP)GO4th & 1 at own 30: GO (go -0.18, FG –, punt -1.11 EP)GO4th & 1 at own 35: GO (go 0.12, FG –, punt -0.93 EP)GO4th & 1 at own 40: GO (go 0.45, FG –, punt -0.65 EP)GO4th & 1 at own 45: GO (go 0.74, FG –, punt -0.46 EP)GO4th & 1 at midfield: GO (go 1.03, FG –, punt -0.34 EP)GO4th & 1 at opp 45: GO (go 1.35, FG -0.71, punt -0.29 EP)GO4th & 1 at opp 40: GO (go 1.66, FG 0.01, punt -0.24 EP)GO4th & 1 at opp 35: GO (go 1.99, FG 0.65, punt -0.24 EP)GO4th & 1 at opp 30: GO (go 2.33, FG 1.12, punt – EP)GO4th & 1 at opp 25: GO (go 2.64, FG 1.44, punt – EP)GO4th & 1 at opp 20: GO (go 2.92, FG 1.65, punt – EP)GO4th & 1 at opp 15: GO (go 3.28, FG 1.77, punt – EP)GO4th & 1 at opp 10: GO (go 3.80, FG 1.84, punt – EP)GO4th & 1 at opp 5: GO (go 3.87, FG 1.88, punt – EP)GO4th & 2 at own 5: GO (go -2.07, FG –, punt -2.60 EP)GO4th & 2 at own 10: GO (go -1.64, FG –, punt -2.32 EP)GO4th & 2 at own 15: GO (go -1.33, FG –, punt -1.99 EP)GO4th & 2 at own 20: GO (go -1.07, FG –, punt -1.72 EP)GO4th & 2 at own 25: GO (go -0.74, FG –, punt -1.41 EP)GO4th & 2 at own 30: GO (go -0.42, FG –, punt -1.11 EP)GO4th & 2 at own 35: GO (go -0.11, FG –, punt -0.93 EP)GO4th & 2 at own 40: GO (go 0.21, FG –, punt -0.65 EP)GO4th & 2 at own 45: GO (go 0.50, FG –, punt -0.46 EP)GO4th & 2 at midfield: GO (go 0.80, FG –, punt -0.34 EP)GO4th & 2 at opp 45: GO (go 1.11, FG -0.71, punt -0.29 EP)GO4th & 2 at opp 40: GO (go 1.43, FG 0.01, punt -0.24 EP)GO4th & 2 at opp 35: GO (go 1.75, FG 0.65, punt -0.24 EP)GO4th & 2 at opp 30: GO (go 2.09, FG 1.12, punt – EP)GO4th & 2 at opp 25: GO (go 2.40, FG 1.44, punt – EP)GO4th & 2 at opp 20: GO (go 2.67, FG 1.65, punt – EP)GO4th & 2 at opp 15: GO (go 3.07, FG 1.77, punt – EP)GO4th & 2 at opp 10: GO (go 3.55, FG 1.84, punt – EP)GO4th & 2 at opp 5: GO (go 3.58, FG 1.88, punt – EP)GO4th & 3 at own 5: GO (go -2.44, FG –, punt -2.60 EP)GO4th & 3 at own 10: GO (go -1.99, FG –, punt -2.32 EP)GO4th & 3 at own 15: GO (go -1.69, FG –, punt -1.99 EP)GO4th & 3 at own 20: GO (go -1.42, FG –, punt -1.72 EP)GO4th & 3 at own 25: GO (go -1.09, FG –, punt -1.41 EP)GO4th & 3 at own 30: GO (go -0.77, FG –, punt -1.11 EP)GO4th & 3 at own 35: GO (go -0.45, FG –, punt -0.93 EP)GO4th & 3 at own 40: GO (go -0.14, FG –, punt -0.65 EP)GO4th & 3 at own 45: GO (go 0.16, FG –, punt -0.46 EP)GO4th & 3 at midfield: GO (go 0.46, FG –, punt -0.34 EP)GO4th & 3 at opp 45: GO (go 0.77, FG -0.71, punt -0.29 EP)GO4th & 3 at opp 40: GO (go 1.09, FG 0.01, punt -0.24 EP)GO4th & 3 at opp 35: GO (go 1.41, FG 0.65, punt -0.24 EP)GO4th & 3 at opp 30: GO (go 1.74, FG 1.12, punt – EP)GO4th & 3 at opp 25: GO (go 2.04, FG 1.44, punt – EP)GO4th & 3 at opp 20: GO (go 2.31, FG 1.65, punt – EP)GO4th & 3 at opp 15: GO (go 2.75, FG 1.77, punt – EP)GO4th & 3 at opp 10: GO (go 3.17, FG 1.84, punt – EP)GO4th & 3 at opp 5: GO (go 3.18, FG 1.88, punt – EP)GO4th & 4 at own 5: PUNT (go -2.74, FG –, punt -2.60 EP)P4th & 4 at own 10: GO (go -2.27, FG –, punt -2.32 EP)GO4th & 4 at own 15: GO (go -1.99, FG –, punt -1.99 EP)GO4th & 4 at own 20: GO (go -1.70, FG –, punt -1.72 EP)GO4th & 4 at own 25: GO (go -1.37, FG –, punt -1.41 EP)GO4th & 4 at own 30: GO (go -1.05, FG –, punt -1.11 EP)GO4th & 4 at own 35: GO (go -0.72, FG –, punt -0.93 EP)GO4th & 4 at own 40: GO (go -0.42, FG –, punt -0.65 EP)GO4th & 4 at own 45: GO (go -0.11, FG –, punt -0.46 EP)GO4th & 4 at midfield: GO (go 0.19, FG –, punt -0.34 EP)GO4th & 4 at opp 45: GO (go 0.49, FG -0.71, punt -0.29 EP)GO4th & 4 at opp 40: GO (go 0.82, FG 0.01, punt -0.24 EP)GO4th & 4 at opp 35: GO (go 1.13, FG 0.65, punt -0.24 EP)GO4th & 4 at opp 30: GO (go 1.46, FG 1.12, punt – EP)GO4th & 4 at opp 25: GO (go 1.75, FG 1.44, punt – EP)GO4th & 4 at opp 20: GO (go 2.03, FG 1.65, punt – EP)GO4th & 4 at opp 15: GO (go 2.49, FG 1.77, punt – EP)GO4th & 4 at opp 10: GO (go 2.83, FG 1.84, punt – EP)GO4th & 4 at opp 5: GO (go 2.86, FG 1.88, punt – EP)GO4th & 5 at own 5: PUNT (go -2.95, FG –, punt -2.60 EP)P4th & 5 at own 10: PUNT (go -2.47, FG –, punt -2.32 EP)P4th & 5 at own 15: PUNT (go -2.20, FG –, punt -1.99 EP)P4th & 5 at own 20: PUNT (go -1.90, FG –, punt -1.72 EP)P4th & 5 at own 25: PUNT (go -1.57, FG –, punt -1.41 EP)P4th & 5 at own 30: PUNT (go -1.25, FG –, punt -1.11 EP)P4th & 5 at own 35: GO (go -0.92, FG –, punt -0.93 EP)GO4th & 5 at own 40: GO (go -0.62, FG –, punt -0.65 EP)GO4th & 5 at own 45: GO (go -0.31, FG –, punt -0.46 EP)GO4th & 5 at midfield: GO (go -0.00, FG –, punt -0.34 EP)GO4th & 5 at opp 45: GO (go 0.30, FG -0.71, punt -0.29 EP)GO4th & 5 at opp 40: GO (go 0.63, FG 0.01, punt -0.24 EP)GO4th & 5 at opp 35: GO (go 0.94, FG 0.65, punt -0.24 EP)GO4th & 5 at opp 30: GO (go 1.26, FG 1.12, punt – EP)GO4th & 5 at opp 25: GO (go 1.55, FG 1.44, punt – EP)GO4th & 5 at opp 20: GO (go 1.85, FG 1.65, punt – EP)GO4th & 5 at opp 15: GO (go 2.31, FG 1.77, punt – EP)GO4th & 5 at opp 10: GO (go 2.51, FG 1.84, punt – EP)GO4th & 5 at opp 5: GO (go 2.63, FG 1.88, punt – EP)GO4th & 7 at own 5: PUNT (go -3.32, FG –, punt -2.60 EP)P4th & 7 at own 10: PUNT (go -2.81, FG –, punt -2.32 EP)P4th & 7 at own 15: PUNT (go -2.56, FG –, punt -1.99 EP)P4th & 7 at own 20: PUNT (go -2.24, FG –, punt -1.72 EP)P4th & 7 at own 25: PUNT (go -1.92, FG –, punt -1.41 EP)P4th & 7 at own 30: PUNT (go -1.58, FG –, punt -1.11 EP)P4th & 7 at own 35: PUNT (go -1.25, FG –, punt -0.93 EP)P4th & 7 at own 40: PUNT (go -0.96, FG –, punt -0.65 EP)P4th & 7 at own 45: PUNT (go -0.64, FG –, punt -0.46 EP)P4th & 7 at midfield: GO (go -0.34, FG –, punt -0.34 EP)GO4th & 7 at opp 45: GO (go -0.04, FG -0.71, punt -0.29 EP)GO4th & 7 at opp 40: GO (go 0.30, FG 0.01, punt -0.24 EP)GO4th & 7 at opp 35: FG (go 0.60, FG 0.65, punt -0.24 EP)FG4th & 7 at opp 30: FG (go 0.92, FG 1.12, punt – EP)FG4th & 7 at opp 25: FG (go 1.19, FG 1.44, punt – EP)FG4th & 7 at opp 20: FG (go 1.54, FG 1.65, punt – EP)FG4th & 7 at opp 15: GO (go 1.97, FG 1.77, punt – EP)GO4th & 7 at opp 10: GO (go 2.10, FG 1.84, punt – EP)GO4th & 7 at opp 5: GO (go 2.24, FG 1.88, punt – EP)GO4th & 10 at own 5: PUNT (go -3.84, FG –, punt -2.60 EP)P4th & 10 at own 10: PUNT (go -3.33, FG –, punt -2.32 EP)P4th & 10 at own 15: PUNT (go -3.05, FG –, punt -1.99 EP)P4th & 10 at own 20: PUNT (go -2.74, FG –, punt -1.72 EP)P4th & 10 at own 25: PUNT (go -2.42, FG –, punt -1.41 EP)P4th & 10 at own 30: PUNT (go -2.06, FG –, punt -1.11 EP)P4th & 10 at own 35: PUNT (go -1.75, FG –, punt -0.93 EP)P4th & 10 at own 40: PUNT (go -1.44, FG –, punt -0.65 EP)P4th & 10 at own 45: PUNT (go -1.12, FG –, punt -0.46 EP)P4th & 10 at midfield: PUNT (go -0.83, FG –, punt -0.34 EP)P4th & 10 at opp 45: PUNT (go -0.52, FG -0.71, punt -0.29 EP)P4th & 10 at opp 40: FG (go -0.19, FG 0.01, punt -0.24 EP)FG4th & 10 at opp 35: FG (go 0.10, FG 0.65, punt -0.24 EP)FG4th & 10 at opp 30: FG (go 0.41, FG 1.12, punt – EP)FG4th & 10 at opp 25: FG (go 0.70, FG 1.44, punt – EP)FG4th & 10 at opp 20: FG (go 1.09, FG 1.65, punt – EP)FG4th & 10 at opp 15: FG (go 1.35, FG 1.77, punt – EP)FG4th & 10 at opp 10: FG (go 1.54, FG 1.84, punt – EP)FG4th & 10 at opp 5: FG (go 1.70, FG 1.88, punt – EP)FG1 to go2 to go3 to go4 to go5 to go7 to go10+ to goown 5own 10own 15own 20own 25own 30own 35own 40own 4550opp 45opp 40opp 35opp 30opp 25opp 20opp 15opp 10opp 5← own goal lineopponent goal line →
Go for it Field goal PuntBrighter = bigger edge over the next-best option · hover for EP values

Inputs · conversion

How often 4th downs convert

0%25%50%75%100%151015yards to go1: 65%2: 60%3: 53%4: 48%5: 44%6: 41%7: 37%8: 34%9: 31%10: 28%11: 26%12: 23%13: 20%14: 17%15: 14%

Inputs · kicking

Field goal make rate by distance

0%25%50%75%100%2030405060kick distance (yards)18: 99%19: 99%20: 98%21: 98%22: 98%23: 98%24: 98%25: 97%26: 97%27: 97%28: 96%29: 96%30: 95%31: 95%32: 94%33: 94%34: 93%35: 93%36: 92%37: 91%38: 90%39: 89%40: 88%41: 87%42: 86%43: 84%44: 83%45: 81%46: 80%47: 78%48: 76%49: 74%50: 72%51: 70%52: 68%53: 65%54: 63%55: 61%56: 58%57: 55%58: 53%59: 50%60: 48%61: 45%62: 43%63: 40%

2025 · by team

Who followed the math

Graded: every 4th-down run, pass, field goal or punt in the first three quarters or with more than five minutes left, with the score within 16. A call is “clear” when the best option beats the next by at least 0.5expected points. Plays wiped out by penalties don't count, and a fake punt counts as going for it. Ranked by EP given up on calls that differed from the model.

TeamGradedWentClear callsMatchedKicked, should goWent, should kickEP given up
Bills74205285%807.6
Eagles98125485%809.7
Colts79185182%9011.0
Lions99257185%11011.6
Dolphins7674279%9011.8
Cowboys83215074%12112.0
Cardinals8176282%10112.0
Panthers89216284%10012.7
Bengals7985078%11013.3
Jets89134976%12013.7
Raiders98167083%12013.8
Falcons101155379%11014.2
Commanders82164676%10014.4
Buccaneers97155876%13115.1
Saints99166078%13015.6
Jaguars84155973%16016.7
Bears104216077%14017.2
Patriots73165470%15117.2
Rams75225273%14017.2
Browns115177278%15117.3
Packers85175968%19017.6
Seahawks79104871%14018.1
Chiefs103266480%13018.2
Titans104126478%13118.9
49ers82165370%16019.0
Ravens85135370%15119.2
Vikings96116571%19019.7
Broncos105167069%22020.4
Giants99216673%17120.9
Steelers100166273%17022.1
Chargers98107267%23124.6
Texans122158467%27030.9