- Net EPA/play
- −0.018 19th of 32
- Points
- 353–401 for – against
- Neutral pass rate
- 48% −5.9 pts over expected
- Explosive plays
- 9.6% of offensive plays
2025 profile
Where they rank
Offense EPA/play−0.021 24th
Pass EPA/dropback+0.007 22nd
Rush EPA/carry−0.058 20th
Offense success43.7% 18th
Defense EPA allowed−0.004 15th
Pass D EPA+0.004 13th
Run D EPA−0.015 26th
Defense success allowed44.6% 17th
DOT POSITION: LEAGUE WORST (LEFT) → BEST (RIGHT) · RANK OF 32
2026 so far · thru week 10
This season
Offense EPA/play−0.073 25th
Pass EPA/dropback−0.134 27th
Rush EPA/carry−0.000 8th
Offense success43.4% 13th
Defense EPA allowed+0.002 15th
Pass D EPA+0.043 16th
Run D EPA−0.060 21st
Defense success allowed44.7% 25th
DOT POSITION: LEAGUE WORST (LEFT) → BEST (RIGHT) · RANK OF 32
4th downs · 2025
101 graded calls, 15 go-for-its
On the 53 clear-cut calls, the Falcons matched the model 79% of the time. They kicked 11 times when going was clearly better, and went 0 times when kicking was. Total cost of calls that differed from the model: 14.2 expected points, 12th fewest in the league.
The costliest calls
- −1.44EP · wk 17vs LA · Q4 07:34 · 4th & 1 at opp 49 · up 7
Chose punt; model said go for it. (7:34) 13-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to LA 11, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 19-X.Smith. - −1.14EP · wk 13vs NYJ · Q1 11:52 · 4th & 2 at own 49 · tied
Chose punt; model said go for it. (11:52) 13-B.Pinion punts 36 yards to NYJ 15, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds. - −0.98EP · wk 2vs MIN · Q3 06:20 · 4th & 3 at opp 15 · up 3
Chose field goal; model said go for it. (6:20) 39-J.Romo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. - −0.97EP · wk 12vs NO · Q4 05:03 · 4th & 2 at own 45 · up 14
Chose punt; model said go for it. (5:03) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to NO 12, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 11-D.Pettis.
Swing plays · 2025
The plays that moved win probability most
- +46%win prob · wk 15ATL vs TB · Q4 00:04
(:04) 45-Z.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. - −41%win prob · wk 11CAR vs ATL · Q5 08:06
(8:06) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble to ATL 15 for 54 yards (55-K.Elliss). - +31%win prob · wk 15ATL vs TB · Q4 00:49
(:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 87-D.Sills to TB 36 for 21 yards (31-A.Winfield). - −29%win prob · wk 1ATL vs TB · Q4 00:06
(:06) 6-Y.Koo 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. - −29%win prob · wk 13NYJ vs ATL · Q4 00:05
(:05) 6-N.Folk 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.