- Net EPA/play
- +0.152 3rd of 32
- Points
- 481–365 for – against
- Neutral pass rate
- 50% −2.2 pts over expected
- Explosive plays
- 11.4% of offensive plays
2025 profile
Where they rank
Offense EPA/play+0.136 3rd
Pass EPA/dropback+0.194 4th
Rush EPA/carry+0.062 2nd
Offense success48.5% 2nd
Defense EPA allowed−0.016 13th
Pass D EPA−0.068 8th
Run D EPA+0.051 30th
Defense success allowed42.4% 12th
DOT POSITION: LEAGUE WORST (LEFT) → BEST (RIGHT) · RANK OF 32
2026 so far · thru week 10
This season
Offense EPA/play+0.141 4th
Pass EPA/dropback+0.253 4th
Rush EPA/carry+0.003 7th
Offense success47.6% 6th
Defense EPA allowed−0.010 13th
Pass D EPA+0.028 14th
Run D EPA−0.081 14th
Defense success allowed44.3% 21st
DOT POSITION: LEAGUE WORST (LEFT) → BEST (RIGHT) · RANK OF 32
4th downs · 2025
74 graded calls, 20 go-for-its
On the 52 clear-cut calls, the Bills matched the model 85% of the time. They kicked 8 times when going was clearly better, and went 0 times when kicking was. Total cost of calls that differed from the model: 7.6 expected points, 1st fewest in the league.
The costliest calls
- −0.99EP · wk 10vs MIA · Q1 12:23 · 4th & 1 at own 34 · tied
Chose punt; model said go for it. (12:23) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 58 yards to MIA 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 6-M.Washington. - −0.91EP · wk 17vs PHI · Q3 13:32 · 4th & 1 at own 29 · down 13
Chose punt; model said go for it. (13:32) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 49 yards to PHI 22, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 18-B.Covey. - −0.80EP · wk 6vs ATL · Q2 08:21 · 4th & 3 at own 49 · down 14
Chose punt; model said go for it. (8:21) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to ATL 5, impetus ends at ATL 1, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-42-D.Williams. - −0.79EP · wk 16vs CLE · Q3 12:56 · 4th & 2 at own 38 · up 10
Chose punt; model said go for it. (12:56) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.
Swing plays · 2025
The plays that moved win probability most
- +56%win prob · wk 14CIN vs BUF · Q4 05:35
(5:35) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 47-C.Benford at BUF 37. 47-C.Benford for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. - +39%win prob · wk 1BUF vs BAL · Q4 00:03
(:03) 15-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-40-B.Robbins. - +33%win prob · wk 12BUF vs HOU · Q4 00:51
(:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 5-J.Palmer to BUF 41 for 11 yards. Lateral to 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at HOU 26 for 33 yards (23-J.Reed). - −29%win prob · wk 5NE vs BUF · Q4 00:20
(:20) 36-A.Borregales 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. - +29%win prob · wk 17BUF vs PHI · Q4 00:08
(:08) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.