- Net EPA/play
- +0.061 12th of 32
- Points
- 441–415 for – against
- Neutral pass rate
- 52% −0.7 pts over expected
- Explosive plays
- 10.5% of offensive plays
2025 profile
Where they rank
Offense EPA/play+0.080 8th
Pass EPA/dropback+0.116 9th
Rush EPA/carry+0.027 5th
Offense success45.8% 9th
Defense EPA allowed+0.018 19th
Pass D EPA+0.052 17th
Run D EPA−0.030 20th
Defense success allowed46.7% 25th
DOT POSITION: LEAGUE WORST (LEFT) → BEST (RIGHT) · RANK OF 32
2026 so far · thru week 10
This season
Offense EPA/play+0.037 13th
Pass EPA/dropback+0.093 12th
Rush EPA/carry−0.037 11th
Offense success47.0% 8th
Defense EPA allowed−0.049 10th
Pass D EPA−0.032 7th
Run D EPA−0.080 15th
Defense success allowed40.2% 4th
DOT POSITION: LEAGUE WORST (LEFT) → BEST (RIGHT) · RANK OF 32
4th downs · 2025
104 graded calls, 21 go-for-its
On the 60 clear-cut calls, the Bears matched the model 77% of the time. They kicked 14 times when going was clearly better, and went 0 times when kicking was. Total cost of calls that differed from the model: 17.2 expected points, 17th fewest in the league.
The costliest calls
- −1.69EP · wk 9vs CIN · Q2 01:33 · 4th & 2 at opp 6 · up 1
Chose field goal; model said go for it. (1:33) 8-C.Santos 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. - −1.12EP · wk 13vs PHI · Q3 10:06 · 4th & 3 at opp 44 · up 7
Chose punt; model said go for it. (10:06) 19-T.Taylor punts 36 yards to PHI 8, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 18-B.Covey. - −1.04EP · wk 12vs PIT · Q3 05:17 · 4th & 1 at own 36 · up 3
Chose punt; model said go for it. (5:17) 19-T.Taylor punts 42 yards to PIT 22, Center-46-S.Daly. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at PIT 34 for 12 yards (43-C.Jones). - −1.01EP · wk 10vs NYG · Q3 00:38 · 4th & 4 at opp 4 · down 10
Chose field goal; model said go for it. (:38) 8-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
Swing plays · 2025
The plays that moved win probability most
- +58%win prob · wk 9CHI vs CIN · Q4 00:25
(:25) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 84-C.Loveland for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. - −47%win prob · wk 17CHI vs SF · Q4 00:04
(:04) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short left to 20-J.Walker [94-Y.Gross-Matos]. CHI-10-L.Burden was injured during the play. - +44%win prob · wk 11CHI vs MIN · Q4 00:04
(:04) 8-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. - +43%win prob · wk 6CHI vs WAS · Q4 00:03
(:03) 16-J.Moody 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. - +41%win prob · wk 16CHI vs GB · Q5 04:57
(4:57) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.