- Net EPA/play
- +0.138 5th of 32
- Points
- 401–311 for – against
- Neutral pass rate
- 55% +1.4 pts over expected
- Explosive plays
- 8.3% of offensive plays
2025 profile
Where they rank
Offense EPA/play+0.050 10th
Pass EPA/dropback+0.111 10th
Rush EPA/carry−0.053 17th
Offense success44.2% 16th
Defense EPA allowed−0.088 6th
Pass D EPA−0.081 5th
Run D EPA−0.101 6th
Defense success allowed36.7% 1st
DOT POSITION: LEAGUE WORST (LEFT) → BEST (RIGHT) · RANK OF 32
2026 so far · thru week 10
This season
Offense EPA/play−0.014 16th
Pass EPA/dropback+0.021 20th
Rush EPA/carry−0.065 15th
Offense success39.1% 28th
Defense EPA allowed−0.008 14th
Pass D EPA−0.001 12th
Run D EPA−0.020 29th
Defense success allowed41.1% 9th
DOT POSITION: LEAGUE WORST (LEFT) → BEST (RIGHT) · RANK OF 32
4th downs · 2025
105 graded calls, 16 go-for-its
On the 70 clear-cut calls, the Broncos matched the model 69% of the time. They kicked 22 times when going was clearly better, and went 0 times when kicking was. Total cost of calls that differed from the model: 20.4 expected points, 28th fewest in the league.
The costliest calls
- −1.08EP · wk 1vs TEN · Q2 00:54 · 4th & 2 at own 48 · down 3
Chose punt; model said go for it. (:54) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 45 yards to TEN 7, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 17-C.Dike. - −1.04EP · wk 11vs KC · Q2 00:37 · 4th & 1 at own 36 · tied
Chose punt; model said go for it. (:37) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 52 yards to KC 12, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 81-N.Remigio to KC 24 for 12 yards (26-D.Key). - −0.93EP · wk 18vs LAC · Q3 03:40 · 4th & 3 at opp 48 · up 10
Chose punt; model said go for it. (3:40) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback. - −0.93EP · wk 10vs LV · Q2 07:46 · 4th & 1 at own 10 · down 7
Chose punt; model said go for it. (7:46) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 38 yards to DEN 48, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds. PENALTY on DEN-34-J.Skinner, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 48.
Swing plays · 2025
The plays that moved win probability most
- +47%win prob · wk 13WAS vs DEN · Q5 02:47
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-M.Mariota pass to 26-J.McNichols is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. - −43%win prob · wk 13WAS vs DEN · Q5 03:58
(3:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep right to 1-D.Samuel to DEN 2 for 38 yards (21-R.Moss). - +42%win prob · wk 7DEN vs NYG · Q4 00:02
(:02) 3-W.Lutz 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. - −41%win prob · wk 2IND vs DEN · Q4 00:00
(:00) 3-S.Shrader 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. - +35%win prob · wk 13WAS vs DEN · Q5 02:50
(2:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.