- Net EPA/play
- +0.092 9th of 32
- Points
- 481–413 for – against
- Neutral pass rate
- 49% −5.4 pts over expected
- Explosive plays
- 10.5% of offensive plays
2025 profile
Where they rank
Offense EPA/play+0.082 7th
Pass EPA/dropback+0.170 5th
Rush EPA/carry−0.046 15th
Offense success45.3% 12th
Defense EPA allowed−0.010 14th
Pass D EPA+0.006 14th
Run D EPA−0.036 19th
Defense success allowed41.7% 8th
DOT POSITION: LEAGUE WORST (LEFT) → BEST (RIGHT) · RANK OF 32
2026 so far · thru week 10
This season
Offense EPA/play+0.102 6th
Pass EPA/dropback+0.211 5th
Rush EPA/carry−0.048 13th
Offense success48.7% 4th
Defense EPA allowed+0.080 28th
Pass D EPA+0.165 27th
Run D EPA−0.105 11th
Defense success allowed43.9% 19th
DOT POSITION: LEAGUE WORST (LEFT) → BEST (RIGHT) · RANK OF 32
4th downs · 2025
99 graded calls, 25 go-for-its
On the 71 clear-cut calls, the Lions matched the model 85% of the time. They kicked 11 times when going was clearly better, and went 0 times when kicking was. Total cost of calls that differed from the model: 11.6 expected points, 4th fewest in the league.
The costliest calls
- −1.01EP · wk 10vs WAS · Q2 00:14 · 4th & 4 at opp 4 · up 12
Chose field goal; model said go for it. (:14) 39-J.Bates 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. PENALTY on WAS-20-Q.Martin, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. - −0.97EP · wk 5vs CIN · Q2 06:33 · 4th & 2 at own 44 · up 14
Chose punt; model said go for it. (6:33) 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to CIN 9, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 15-C.Jones. PENALTY on CIN-28-J.Newton, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at CIN 9. - −0.86EP · wk 4vs CLE · Q1 12:53 · 4th & 3 at opp 49 · tied
Chose punt; model said go for it. (12:53) 3-J.Fox punts 37 yards to CLE 12, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 2-D.Carter. - −0.86EP · wk 6vs KC · Q2 00:17 · 4th & 2 at own 40 · down 3
Chose punt; model said go for it. (:17) 3-J.Fox punts 49 yards to KC 11, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.
Swing plays · 2025
The plays that moved win probability most
- +74%win prob · wk 12NYG vs DET · Q5 04:26
(4:26) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at DET 31 for -4 yards (97-A.Hutchinson). - −41%win prob · wk 12DET vs NYG · Q5 09:42
39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. - −32%win prob · wk 12NYG vs DET · Q5 08:43
(8:43) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston scrambles left end ran ob at NYG 41 for 11 yards (32-B.Branch). Penalty on DET-54-A.McNeill, Defensive Offside, declined. - +27%win prob · wk 15LA vs DET · Q1 08:24
(8:24) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 84-C.Parkinson INTERCEPTED by 97-A.Hutchinson at DET 25. 97-A.Hutchinson to LA 17 for 58 yards (84-C.Parkinson). - +25%win prob · wk 18DET vs CHI · Q4 00:02
(:02) 39-J.Bates 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.