- Net EPA/play
- +0.118 7th of 32
- Points
- 404–295 for – against
- Neutral pass rate
- 54% −0.7 pts over expected
- Explosive plays
- 7.6% of offensive plays
2025 profile
Where they rank
Offense EPA/play−0.013 21st
Pass EPA/dropback+0.060 15th
Rush EPA/carry−0.124 30th
Offense success41.3% 28th
Defense EPA allowed−0.131 1st
Pass D EPA−0.131 1st
Run D EPA−0.133 2nd
Defense success allowed38.3% 2nd
DOT POSITION: LEAGUE WORST (LEFT) → BEST (RIGHT) · RANK OF 32
2026 so far · thru week 10
This season
Offense EPA/play+0.060 8th
Pass EPA/dropback+0.178 7th
Rush EPA/carry−0.144 25th
Offense success42.9% 15th
Defense EPA allowed+0.003 16th
Pass D EPA+0.053 17th
Run D EPA−0.076 17th
Defense success allowed40.6% 7th
DOT POSITION: LEAGUE WORST (LEFT) → BEST (RIGHT) · RANK OF 32
4th downs · 2025
122 graded calls, 15 go-for-its
On the 84 clear-cut calls, the Texans matched the model 67% of the time. They kicked 27 times when going was clearly better, and went 0 times when kicking was. Total cost of calls that differed from the model: 30.9 expected points, 32nd fewest in the league.
The costliest calls
- −1.34EP · wk 15vs ARI · Q2 01:46 · 4th & 3 at opp 3 · up 13
Chose field goal; model said go for it. (1:46) 15-K.Fairbairn 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. - −1.30EP · wk 8vs SF · Q1 05:24 · 4th & 2 at opp 15 · tied
Chose field goal; model said go for it. (5:24) 15-K.Fairbairn 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. - −1.27EP · wk 9vs DEN · Q2 01:55 · 4th & 1 at opp 20 · down 1
Chose field goal; model said go for it. (1:55) 15-K.Fairbairn 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. - −1.27EP · wk 9vs DEN · Q3 05:34 · 4th & 2 at opp 48 · up 8
Chose punt; model said go for it. (5:34) 6-T.Townsend punts 36 yards to DEN 12, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 83-M.Bandy.
Swing plays · 2025
The plays that moved win probability most
- −36%win prob · wk 2TB vs HOU · Q4 00:09
(:09) 1-R.White right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. - −35%win prob · wk 1HOU vs LA · Q4 01:51
(1:51) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 33-D.Ogunbowale to LA 18 for 7 yards (53-N.Landman). FUMBLES (53-N.Landman), RECOVERED by LA-55-B.Fiske at LA 24. - −33%win prob · wk 12BUF vs HOU · Q4 00:51
(:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 5-J.Palmer to BUF 41 for 11 yards. Lateral to 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at HOU 26 for 33 yards (23-J.Reed). - −32%win prob · wk 2HOU vs TB · Q4 00:06
4-C.McLaughlin kicks 61 yards from TB 35 to HOU 4. 11-T.Smith to HOU 33 for 29 yards (57-J.Bullock). - +30%win prob · wk 10HOU vs JAX · Q4 00:37
(:37) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills scrambles left end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.