- Net EPA/play
- +0.068 11th of 32
- Points
- 466–412 for – against
- Neutral pass rate
- 55% +1.9 pts over expected
- Explosive plays
- 8.4% of offensive plays
2025 profile
Where they rank
Offense EPA/play+0.072 9th
Pass EPA/dropback+0.076 13th
Rush EPA/carry+0.067 1st
Offense success46.3% 8th
Defense EPA allowed+0.004 16th
Pass D EPA+0.059 18th
Run D EPA−0.089 9th
Defense success allowed45.5% 23rd
DOT POSITION: LEAGUE WORST (LEFT) → BEST (RIGHT) · RANK OF 32
2026 so far · thru week 10
This season
Offense EPA/play−0.125 29th
Pass EPA/dropback−0.216 31st
Rush EPA/carry+0.009 6th
Offense success42.2% 19th
Defense EPA allowed+0.075 27th
Pass D EPA+0.112 23rd
Run D EPA+0.028 32nd
Defense success allowed43.4% 14th
DOT POSITION: LEAGUE WORST (LEFT) → BEST (RIGHT) · RANK OF 32
4th downs · 2025
79 graded calls, 18 go-for-its
On the 51 clear-cut calls, the Colts matched the model 82% of the time. They kicked 9 times when going was clearly better, and went 0 times when kicking was. Total cost of calls that differed from the model: 11.0 expected points, 3rd fewest in the league.
The costliest calls
- −1.29EP · wk 3vs TEN · Q1 07:40 · 4th & 3 at opp 6 · up 4
Chose field goal; model said go for it. (7:40) 3-S.Shrader 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. - −1.03EP · wk 5vs LV · Q1 13:23 · 4th & 1 at own 38 · tied
Chose punt; model said go for it. (13:23) 8-R.Sanchez punts 56 yards to LV 6, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-A.Bachman to LV 14 for 8 yards (25-R.Thomas). - −0.97EP · wk 7vs LAC · Q4 12:48 · 4th & 2 at own 45 · up 14
Chose punt; model said go for it. (12:48) 8-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to LAC 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 12-D.Davis. - −0.79EP · wk 12vs KC · Q3 09:16 · 4th & 4 at opp 14 · up 5
Chose field goal; model said go for it. (9:16) 12-M.Badgley 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Swing plays · 2025
The plays that moved win probability most
- +41%win prob · wk 2IND vs DEN · Q4 00:00
(:00) 3-S.Shrader 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. - +38%win prob · wk 6ARI vs IND · Q4 00:58
(:58) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 85-T.McBride [97-L.Latu]. - −34%win prob · wk 15SEA vs IND · Q4 00:22
(:22) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. - −33%win prob · wk 12KC vs IND · Q5 05:33
(5:33) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 1-X.Worthy to IND 45 for 31 yards (7-C.Ward) [20-N.Cross]. - −29%win prob · wk 4LA vs IND · Q4 01:44
(1:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 5-T.Atwell for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-S.Ebukam].