- Net EPA/play
- +0.137 6th of 32
- Points
- 474–336 for – against
- Neutral pass rate
- 56% +4.2 pts over expected
- Explosive plays
- 8.7% of offensive plays
2025 profile
Where they rank
Offense EPA/play+0.032 14th
Pass EPA/dropback+0.084 11th
Rush EPA/carry−0.048 16th
Offense success44.4% 15th
Defense EPA allowed−0.105 3rd
Pass D EPA−0.113 3rd
Run D EPA−0.089 10th
Defense success allowed41.3% 6th
DOT POSITION: LEAGUE WORST (LEFT) → BEST (RIGHT) · RANK OF 32
2026 so far · thru week 10
This season
Offense EPA/play+0.148 2nd
Pass EPA/dropback+0.265 2nd
Rush EPA/carry+0.010 5th
Offense success47.3% 7th
Defense EPA allowed−0.128 3rd
Pass D EPA−0.101 3rd
Run D EPA−0.172 3rd
Defense success allowed41.0% 8th
DOT POSITION: LEAGUE WORST (LEFT) → BEST (RIGHT) · RANK OF 32
4th downs · 2025
84 graded calls, 15 go-for-its
On the 59 clear-cut calls, the Jaguars matched the model 73% of the time. They kicked 16 times when going was clearly better, and went 0 times when kicking was. Total cost of calls that differed from the model: 16.7 expected points, 16th fewest in the league.
The costliest calls
- −1.39EP · wk 10vs HOU · Q1 11:08 · 4th & 2 at opp 14 · tied
Chose field goal; model said go for it. (11:08) 39-C.Little 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. - −1.28EP · wk 2vs CIN · Q4 06:09 · 4th & 2 at opp 47 · up 3
Chose punt; model said go for it. (6:09) 9-L.Cooke punts 35 yards to CIN 12, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 15-C.Jones. - −1.21EP · wk 3vs HOU · Q3 01:15 · 4th & 1 at opp 29 · up 7
Chose field goal; model said go for it. (1:15) 39-C.Little 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. - −0.97EP · wk 3vs HOU · Q2 00:11 · 4th & 2 at own 44 · up 4
Chose punt; model said go for it. (:11) 9-L.Cooke punts 38 yards to HOU 18, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.
Swing plays · 2025
The plays that moved win probability most
- +46%win prob · wk 9LV vs JAX · Q5 00:20
(:20) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. - +44%win prob · wk 9LV vs JAX · Q4 00:10
(:10) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at LV 29 for -5 yards (sack split by 41-J.Hines-Allen and 90-E.Ogbah). - +42%win prob · wk 9LV vs JAX · Q5 00:16
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 7-G.Smith pass to 17-T.Lockett is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. - +42%win prob · wk 5KC vs JAX · Q3 02:36
(2:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 9-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Lloyd at JAX 1. 0-D.Lloyd for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. - −41%win prob · wk 9JAX vs LV · Q5 03:24
39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.