- Net EPA/play
- +0.054 14th of 32
- Points
- 362–328 for – against
- Neutral pass rate
- 58% +4.7 pts over expected
- Explosive plays
- 7.5% of offensive plays
2025 profile
Where they rank
Offense EPA/play+0.035 11th
Pass EPA/dropback+0.076 12th
Rush EPA/carry−0.045 14th
Offense success44.5% 14th
Defense EPA allowed−0.019 12th
Pass D EPA+0.029 15th
Run D EPA−0.090 8th
Defense success allowed43.7% 14th
DOT POSITION: LEAGUE WORST (LEFT) → BEST (RIGHT) · RANK OF 32
2026 so far · thru week 10
This season
Offense EPA/play+0.131 5th
Pass EPA/dropback+0.157 8th
Rush EPA/carry+0.092 2nd
Offense success48.9% 3rd
Defense EPA allowed−0.067 9th
Pass D EPA−0.010 10th
Run D EPA−0.156 6th
Defense success allowed40.2% 5th
DOT POSITION: LEAGUE WORST (LEFT) → BEST (RIGHT) · RANK OF 32
4th downs · 2025
103 graded calls, 26 go-for-its
On the 64 clear-cut calls, the Chiefs matched the model 80% of the time. They kicked 13 times when going was clearly better, and went 0 times when kicking was. Total cost of calls that differed from the model: 18.2 expected points, 23rd fewest in the league.
The costliest calls
- −2.05EP · wk 9vs BUF · Q2 00:06 · 4th & 1 at opp 1 · down 11
Chose field goal; model said go for it. (:06) 7-H.Butker 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. - −1.34EP · wk 5vs JAX · Q1 09:38 · 4th & 2 at opp 46 · tied
Chose punt; model said go for it. (9:38) 14-M.Araiza punts 32 yards to JAX 14, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-P.Washington. - −1.26EP · wk 3vs NYG · Q3 01:19 · 4th & 1 at own 46 · up 10
Chose punt; model said go for it. (1:19) 14-M.Araiza punts 43 yards to NYG 11, Center-41-J.Winchester. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 20 for 9 yards (41-J.Winchester). - −1.21EP · wk 11vs DEN · Q2 04:41 · 4th & 3 at opp 12 · down 3
Chose field goal; model said go for it. (4:41) 7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Swing plays · 2025
The plays that moved win probability most
- −50%win prob · wk 18LV vs KC · Q4 00:13
(:13) 8-D.Carlson 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. - −42%win prob · wk 5KC vs JAX · Q3 02:36
(2:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 9-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Lloyd at JAX 1. 0-D.Lloyd for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. - +33%win prob · wk 12KC vs IND · Q5 05:33
(5:33) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 1-X.Worthy to IND 45 for 31 yards (7-C.Ward) [20-N.Cross]. - −30%win prob · wk 2KC vs PHI · Q4 13:07
(13:07) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 24-A.Mukuba [98-J.Carter] at PHI 0. 24-A.Mukuba pushed ob at PHI 41 for 41 yards (71-J.Simmons). - −29%win prob · wk 5JAX vs KC · Q4 01:01
(1:01) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 7-B.Thomas pushed ob at KC 24 for 33 yards (27-C.Conner).