- Net EPA/play
- −0.016 18th of 32
- Points
- 344–333 for – against
- Neutral pass rate
- 51% −2.3 pts over expected
- Explosive plays
- 8.8% of offensive plays
2025 profile
Where they rank
Offense EPA/play−0.116 28th
Pass EPA/dropback−0.155 29th
Rush EPA/carry−0.054 18th
Offense success42.6% 23rd
Defense EPA allowed−0.100 4th
Pass D EPA−0.120 2nd
Run D EPA−0.078 12th
Defense success allowed41.0% 5th
DOT POSITION: LEAGUE WORST (LEFT) → BEST (RIGHT) · RANK OF 32
2026 so far · thru week 10
This season
Offense EPA/play−0.162 31st
Pass EPA/dropback−0.135 28th
Rush EPA/carry−0.202 28th
Offense success36.2% 30th
Defense EPA allowed−0.149 2nd
Pass D EPA−0.179 1st
Run D EPA−0.110 10th
Defense success allowed37.6% 1st
DOT POSITION: LEAGUE WORST (LEFT) → BEST (RIGHT) · RANK OF 32
4th downs · 2025
96 graded calls, 11 go-for-its
On the 65 clear-cut calls, the Vikings matched the model 71% of the time. They kicked 19 times when going was clearly better, and went 0 times when kicking was. Total cost of calls that differed from the model: 19.7 expected points, 27th fewest in the league.
The costliest calls
- −1.10EP · wk 8vs LAC · Q1 11:47 · 4th & 1 at own 41 · tied
Chose punt; model said go for it. (11:47) 17-R.Wright punts 42 yards to LAC 17, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 12-D.Davis. - −1.02EP · wk 8vs LAC · Q2 04:12 · 4th & 2 at own 47 · down 11
Chose punt; model said go for it. (4:12) 17-R.Wright punts 41 yards to LAC 12, Center-42-A.DePaola. 12-D.Davis to LAC 22 for 10 yards (0-I.Pace). PENALTY on LAC-36-J.Taylor, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at LAC 12. - −0.99EP · wk 1vs CHI · Q2 06:58 · 4th & 1 at own 34 · down 4
Chose punt; model said go for it. (6:58) 17-R.Wright punts 31 yards to CHI 35, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds. - −0.91EP · wk 5vs CLE · Q2 06:26 · 4th & 1 at own 23 · tied
Chose punt; model said go for it. (6:26) 17-R.Wright punts 54 yards to CLE 23, Center-42-A.DePaola. 84-G.Larvadain to CLE 26 for 3 yards (56-A.Keys).
Swing plays · 2025
The plays that moved win probability most
- −44%win prob · wk 11CHI vs MIN · Q4 00:04
(:04) 8-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. - +33%win prob · wk 5MIN vs CLE · Q4 00:30
(:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 3-J.Addison for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. - −29%win prob · wk 13MIN vs SEA · Q2 03:14
(3:14) 12-M.Brosmer pass short right INTERCEPTED by 13-E.Jones [0-D.Lawrence] at SEA 15. 13-E.Jones for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN. - −25%win prob · wk 16MIN vs NYG · Q2 00:25
(:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy sacked at MIN 33 for -8 yards (0-B.Burns). FUMBLES (0-B.Burns) [0-B.Burns], RECOVERED by NYG-27-T.Nubin at MIN 27. 27-T.Nubin for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN-9-J.McCarthy was injured during the play. - +22%win prob · wk 13SEA vs MIN · Q2 05:26
(5:26) 14-S.Darnold sacked at SEA 15 for -7 yards (15-D.Turner). FUMBLES (15-D.Turner) [15-D.Turner], RECOVERED by MIN-61-J.Redmond at SEA 13.