- Net EPA/play
- +0.206 1st of 32
- Points
- 490–320 for – against
- Neutral pass rate
- 57% +3.9 pts over expected
- Explosive plays
- 10.9% of offensive plays
2025 profile
Where they rank
Offense EPA/play+0.159 1st
Pass EPA/dropback+0.306 1st
Rush EPA/carry−0.064 22nd
Offense success48.5% 3rd
Defense EPA allowed−0.047 11th
Pass D EPA−0.038 11th
Run D EPA−0.062 16th
Defense success allowed44.6% 18th
DOT POSITION: LEAGUE WORST (LEFT) → BEST (RIGHT) · RANK OF 32
2026 so far · thru week 10
This season
Offense EPA/play+0.041 10th
Pass EPA/dropback+0.149 10th
Rush EPA/carry−0.123 22nd
Offense success45.5% 10th
Defense EPA allowed+0.043 23rd
Pass D EPA+0.140 24th
Run D EPA−0.105 12th
Defense success allowed43.7% 18th
DOT POSITION: LEAGUE WORST (LEFT) → BEST (RIGHT) · RANK OF 32
4th downs · 2025
73 graded calls, 16 go-for-its
On the 54 clear-cut calls, the Patriots matched the model 70% of the time. They kicked 15 times when going was clearly better, and went 1 time when kicking was. Total cost of calls that differed from the model: 17.2 expected points, 18th fewest in the league.
The costliest calls
- −2.05EP · wk 12vs CIN · Q4 05:58 · 4th & 1 at opp 1 · up 7
Chose field goal; model said go for it. (5:58) 36-A.Borregales 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. - −1.15EP · wk 1vs LV · Q2 02:00 · 4th & 2 at opp 17 · tied
Chose field goal; model said go for it. (2:00) 36-A.Borregales 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. - −1.05EP · wk 1vs LV · Q2 00:47 · 4th & 1 at own 35 · up 3
Chose punt; model said go for it. (:47) 17-B.Baringer punts 39 yards to LV 26, Center-47-J.Ashby, out of bounds. - −1.01EP · wk 2vs MIA · Q2 01:59 · 4th & 4 at opp 4 · up 5
Chose field goal; model said go for it. (1:59) 36-A.Borregales 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Swing plays · 2025
The plays that moved win probability most
- +30%win prob · wk 2NE vs MIA · Q4 07:18
47-R.Patterson kicks 55 yards from MIA 35 to NE 10. 4-A.Gibson for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN. - +29%win prob · wk 5NE vs BUF · Q4 00:20
(:20) 36-A.Borregales 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. - +28%win prob · wk 12CIN vs NE · Q2 07:51
(7:51) 16-J.Flacco pass short right intended for 25-T.Brooks INTERCEPTED by 25-M.Jones at CIN 33. 25-M.Jones for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. - +27%win prob · wk 15NE vs BUF · Q4 10:03
(10:03) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 32-T.Henderson left end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. - −26%win prob · wk 2NE vs MIA · Q4 07:39
(7:39) 17-B.Baringer punts 65 yards to MIA 26, Center-47-J.Ashby. 6-M.Washington for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.