- Net EPA/play
- −0.029 21st of 32
- Points
- 306–383 for – against
- Neutral pass rate
- 52% −1.8 pts over expected
- Explosive plays
- 5.7% of offensive plays
2025 profile
Where they rank
Offense EPA/play−0.088 27th
Pass EPA/dropback−0.051 27th
Rush EPA/carry−0.151 31st
Offense success42.0% 26th
Defense EPA allowed−0.059 10th
Pass D EPA−0.015 12th
Run D EPA−0.112 4th
Defense success allowed41.8% 10th
DOT POSITION: LEAGUE WORST (LEFT) → BEST (RIGHT) · RANK OF 32
2026 so far · thru week 10
This season
Offense EPA/play−0.037 22nd
Pass EPA/dropback+0.016 21st
Rush EPA/carry−0.134 24th
Offense success42.0% 21st
Defense EPA allowed+0.050 24th
Pass D EPA+0.096 22nd
Run D EPA−0.020 28th
Defense success allowed46.7% 28th
DOT POSITION: LEAGUE WORST (LEFT) → BEST (RIGHT) · RANK OF 32
4th downs · 2025
99 graded calls, 16 go-for-its
On the 60 clear-cut calls, the Saints matched the model 78% of the time. They kicked 13 times when going was clearly better, and went 0 times when kicking was. Total cost of calls that differed from the model: 15.6 expected points, 15th fewest in the league.
The costliest calls
- −1.75EP · wk 10vs CAR · Q1 02:55 · 4th & 2 at opp 2 · down 7
Chose field goal; model said go for it. (2:55) 19-B.Grupe 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. - −1.09EP · wk 9vs LA · Q1 13:10 · 4th & 1 at own 39 · tied
Chose punt; model said go for it. (13:10) 32-K.Kroeger punts 49 yards to LA 12, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-X.Smith to LA 12 for no gain (27-I.Yiadom). - −1.03EP · wk 12vs ATL · Q1 00:28 · 4th & 1 at own 38 · down 3
Chose punt; model said go for it. (:28) 32-K.Kroeger punts 39 yards to ATL 23, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-43-M.Davis. - −0.98EP · wk 5vs NYG · Q4 06:37 · 4th & 1 at own 32 · up 12
Chose punt; model said go for it. (6:37) 32-K.Kroeger punts 32 yards to NYG 36, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.
Swing plays · 2025
The plays that moved win probability most
- +34%win prob · wk 5NYG vs NO · Q4 15:00
(15:00) (Shotgun) 44-C.Skattebo up the middle to NO 13 for -1 yards (90-B.Bresee). FUMBLES (90-B.Bresee), RECOVERED by NO-31-J.Howden at NO 14. 31-J.Howden for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN. - +26%win prob · wk 13MIA vs NO · Q4 01:17
39-C.Smyth kicks onside 10 yards from NO 35 to NO 45. RECOVERED by NO-14-D.Vele. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. - −25%win prob · wk 18NO vs ATL · Q4 03:24
(3:24) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left intended for 89-S.Toure INTERCEPTED by 20-D.Alford at ATL 14. 20-D.Alford pushed ob at NO 27 for 59 yards (30-A.Estime). - +25%win prob · wk 5NYG vs NO · Q2 01:13
(1:13) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short right to 18-D.Slayton to NO 35 for 9 yards (56-D.Davis). FUMBLES (56-D.Davis), RECOVERED by NO-33-J.Sanker at NO 32. 33-J.Sanker pushed ob at NYG 41 for 27 yards (26-D.Singletary). - +24%win prob · wk 12ATL vs NO · Q2 06:53
(6:53) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 8-K.Pitts INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Reid (4-K.McKinstry) at ATL 49. 21-J.Reid for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.