- Net EPA/play
- +0.018 15th of 32
- Points
- 437–371 for – against
- Neutral pass rate
- 54% +0.6 pts over expected
- Explosive plays
- 8.5% of offensive plays
2025 profile
Where they rank
Offense EPA/play+0.088 6th
Pass EPA/dropback+0.165 6th
Rush EPA/carry−0.023 9th
Offense success48.3% 4th
Defense EPA allowed+0.070 24th
Pass D EPA+0.138 25th
Run D EPA−0.040 18th
Defense success allowed48.5% 29th
DOT POSITION: LEAGUE WORST (LEFT) → BEST (RIGHT) · RANK OF 32
2026 so far · thru week 10
This season
Offense EPA/play+0.180 1st
Pass EPA/dropback+0.306 1st
Rush EPA/carry+0.018 3rd
Offense success52.9% 1st
Defense EPA allowed−0.073 8th
Pass D EPA−0.008 11th
Run D EPA−0.180 1st
Defense success allowed43.7% 16th
DOT POSITION: LEAGUE WORST (LEFT) → BEST (RIGHT) · RANK OF 32
4th downs · 2025
82 graded calls, 16 go-for-its
On the 53 clear-cut calls, the 49ers matched the model 70% of the time. They kicked 16 times when going was clearly better, and went 0 times when kicking was. Total cost of calls that differed from the model: 19.0 expected points, 25th fewest in the league.
The costliest calls
- −1.75EP · wk 5vs LA · Q3 06:36 · 4th & 2 at opp 2 · up 10
Chose field goal; model said go for it. (6:36) 18-E.Pineiro 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. - −1.09EP · wk 1vs SEA · Q3 02:21 · 4th & 2 at opp 18 · down 3
Chose field goal; model said go for it. (2:21) 4-J.Moody 36 yard field goal is BLOCKED (20-J.Love), Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead, RECOVERED by SEA-0-D.Lawrence at SEA 23. 0-D.Lawrence to SEA 31 for 8 yards (68-C.McKivitz). - −1.05EP · wk 13vs CLE · Q2 06:28 · 4th & 4 at opp 40 · up 7
Chose punt; model said go for it. (6:28) 7-T.Morstead punts 30 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain. - −1.05EP · wk 5vs LA · Q2 00:02 · 4th & 2 at opp 19 · up 7
Chose field goal; model said go for it. (:02) 18-E.Pineiro 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
Swing plays · 2025
The plays that moved win probability most
- +80%win prob · wk 5LA vs SF · Q5 03:41
(3:41) 23-K.Williams right tackle to SF 11 for no gain (36-M.Sigle; 2-D.Lenoir). - +59%win prob · wk 5LA vs SF · Q4 01:07
(1:07) 23-K.Williams up the middle to SF 2 for 1 yard (95-A.Collins). FUMBLES (95-A.Collins), RECOVERED by SF-95-A.Collins at SF 1. - +54%win prob · wk 1SEA vs SF · Q4 00:42
(:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at SF 16 for -7 yards (97-N.Bosa). FUMBLES (97-N.Bosa), touched at SF 13, RECOVERED by SF-97-N.Bosa at SF 16. PENALTY on SF-2-D.Lenoir, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 8 yards, enforced at SF 16. - +47%win prob · wk 17CHI vs SF · Q4 00:04
(:04) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short left to 20-J.Walker [94-Y.Gross-Matos]. CHI-10-L.Burden was injured during the play. - +43%win prob · wk 3SF vs ARI · Q4 00:04
(:04) 18-E.Pineiro 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.