- Net EPA/play
- −0.022 20th of 32
- Points
- 380–411 for – against
- Neutral pass rate
- 49% −3.5 pts over expected
- Explosive plays
- 8.8% of offensive plays
2025 profile
Where they rank
Offense EPA/play−0.009 20th
Pass EPA/dropback+0.038 17th
Rush EPA/carry−0.081 25th
Offense success42.4% 24th
Defense EPA allowed+0.013 17th
Pass D EPA+0.080 20th
Run D EPA−0.110 5th
Defense success allowed44.9% 20th
DOT POSITION: LEAGUE WORST (LEFT) → BEST (RIGHT) · RANK OF 32
2026 so far · thru week 10
This season
Offense EPA/play−0.107 28th
Pass EPA/dropback−0.196 30th
Rush EPA/carry−0.008 10th
Offense success40.8% 27th
Defense EPA allowed−0.164 1st
Pass D EPA−0.168 2nd
Run D EPA−0.158 5th
Defense success allowed39.8% 3rd
DOT POSITION: LEAGUE WORST (LEFT) → BEST (RIGHT) · RANK OF 32
4th downs · 2025
97 graded calls, 15 go-for-its
On the 58 clear-cut calls, the Buccaneers matched the model 76% of the time. They kicked 13 times when going was clearly better, and went 1 time when kicking was. Total cost of calls that differed from the model: 15.1 expected points, 14th fewest in the league.
The costliest calls
- −1.16EP · wk 14vs NO · Q2 00:02 · 4th & 15 at opp 47 · up 3
Chose go for it; model said punt. (:02) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left. - −1.03EP · wk 6vs SF · Q1 12:08 · 4th & 1 at own 37 · tied
Chose punt; model said go for it. (12:08) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to SF 16, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 9-S.Moore. - −0.91EP · wk 2vs HOU · Q2 00:14 · 4th & 1 at own 29 · up 4
Chose punt; model said go for it. (:14) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to HOU 29, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-81-R.Miller. - −0.91EP · wk 11vs BUF · Q3 11:22 · 4th & 1 at own 13 · down 1
Chose punt; model said go for it. (11:22) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to BUF 41, Center-86-E.Deckers. 16-M.Hardman to BUF 41 for no gain (32-J.Hayes). FUMBLES (32-J.Hayes), RECOVERED by TB-81-R.Miller at BUF 43.
Swing plays · 2025
The plays that moved win probability most
- −46%win prob · wk 15ATL vs TB · Q4 00:04
(:04) 45-Z.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. - −42%win prob · wk 3TB vs NYJ · Q4 02:00
(2:00) 4-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (9-W.McDonald), Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon, RECOVERED by NYJ-9-W.McDonald at 50. 9-W.McDonald for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. - +40%win prob · wk 5SEA vs TB · Q4 00:58
(:58) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 54-L.David (90-L.Hall) at SEA 38. 54-L.David to SEA 35 for 3 yards (76-G.Zabel). - +36%win prob · wk 2TB vs HOU · Q4 00:09
(:09) 1-R.White right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. - +33%win prob · wk 3TB vs NYJ · Q4 00:03
(:03) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.