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Washington Commanders
2025: 5-12 · 28th in net EPA/play · 2026 thru wk 10: 3-5-1, 22nd
- Net EPA/play
- −0.137 28th of 32
- Points
- 356–451 for – against
- Neutral pass rate
- 48% −4.1 pts over expected
- Explosive plays
- 9.0% of offensive plays
2025 profile
Where they rank
Offense EPA/play+0.006 18th
Pass EPA/dropback+0.038 18th
Rush EPA/carry−0.037 12th
Offense success45.7% 10th
Defense EPA allowed+0.143 30th
Pass D EPA+0.224 30th
Run D EPA+0.035 28th
Defense success allowed47.6% 27th
DOT POSITION: LEAGUE WORST (LEFT) → BEST (RIGHT) · RANK OF 32
2026 so far · thru week 10
This season
Offense EPA/play−0.023 19th
Pass EPA/dropback+0.033 19th
Rush EPA/carry−0.121 21st
Offense success42.6% 17th
Defense EPA allowed+0.032 21st
Pass D EPA+0.077 21st
Run D EPA−0.050 23rd
Defense success allowed45.8% 26th
DOT POSITION: LEAGUE WORST (LEFT) → BEST (RIGHT) · RANK OF 32
4th downs · 2025
82 graded calls, 16 go-for-its
On the 46 clear-cut calls, the Commanders matched the model 76% of the time. They kicked 10 times when going was clearly better, and went 0 times when kicking was. Total cost of calls that differed from the model: 14.4 expected points, 13th fewest in the league.
The costliest calls
- −1.75EP · wk 16vs PHI · Q1 11:42 · 4th & 2 at opp 2 · tied
Chose field goal; model said go for it. (11:42) 16-J.Moody 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. - −1.37EP · wk 1vs NYG · Q4 14:19 · 4th & 1 at own 49 · up 8
Chose punt; model said go for it. (14:19) 10-T.Way punts 42 yards to NYG 9, Center-69-T.Ott. 80-G.Olszewski pushed ob at NYG 12 for 3 yards (80-C.Yankoff). - −0.99EP · wk 14vs MIN · Q2 04:25 · 4th & 1 at own 33 · down 14
Chose punt; model said go for it. (4:25) 10-T.Way punts 46 yards to MIN 21, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 4-M.Price. - −0.90EP · wk 7vs DAL · Q1 04:48 · 4th & 1 at own 22 · down 2
Chose punt; model said go for it. (4:48) 10-T.Way punts 56 yards to DAL 22, Center-69-T.Ott. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 26 for 4 yards (18-T.Owens).
Swing plays · 2025
The plays that moved win probability most
- −47%win prob · wk 13WAS vs DEN · Q5 02:47
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-M.Mariota pass to 26-J.McNichols is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. - +43%win prob · wk 13WAS vs DEN · Q5 03:58
(3:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep right to 1-D.Samuel to DEN 2 for 38 yards (21-R.Moss). - −43%win prob · wk 6CHI vs WAS · Q4 00:03
(:03) 16-J.Moody 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. - −35%win prob · wk 13WAS vs DEN · Q5 02:50
(2:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. - +32%win prob · wk 13DEN vs WAS · Q5 06:59
3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.